Two-thirds of NSW voters believe power prices will rise if the Baird government proceeds with the partial sale of state-owned electricity assets after next year's election, an exclusive poll reveals.
But despite this, a small majority say they are still prepared to support the transaction, set to be the major policy battleground at next year's state election, if the funds are used to pay for new infrastructure.
The Fairfax/Ipsos poll also shows Premier Mike Baird and his government have weathered the storm of recent public hearings at the Independent Commission Against Corruption into illegal political donations.
Ten Liberal MPs moved to the crossbench and two resigned from Parliament altogether over evidence that emerged at the commission.
Yet the poll shows the Coalition retains a significant lead over Labor by 54 per cent to 46 per cent on a two-party preferred basis using 2011 preference flows.
This is a 10.2 per cent swing away from the government since the last election which, if applied uniformly, would see it lose up to 15 seats next March but retain a comfortable 20-plus seat majority over the ALP.
Labor's primary vote is at 36 per cent, up one from a Nielsen poll in February, while the Coalition primary is up four points to 44 per cent.
On electricity privatisation, 64 per cent of voters – including 55 per cent of Coalition supporters – say they oppose the partial sale of state-owned "poles and wires" businesses. Just 29 per cent say they support the proposal.
But support increases when voters are asked their view if the proceeds are used for infrastructure projects. Then, 55 per cent are in favour and 40 per cent are opposed.
This is despite 69 per cent believing that electricity prices will rise under a partial sale. Only 7 per cent believe prices will fall and 20 per cent think they will stay the same.
The government has pledged to lease 49 per cent of the poles and wires if re-elected on March 28.
In an effort to gain support it has promised to use the proceeds for new infrastructure including a second Sydney Harbour rail crossing.
The opposition and unions are campaigning against the sale on the basis that electricity prices will rise and jobs will be lost.
The poll shows Mr Baird is streets ahead of Opposition Leader John Robertson as preferred premier and on personal approval.
Fifty-seven per cent of voters prefer Mr Baird as premier, with only 22 per cent nominating Mr Robertson and 22 per cent undecided.
Sixty percent approve of Mr Baird's performance. Only 18 per cent disapprove, with 23 per cent uncommitted.
Mr Robertson's approval rating sits at 35 per cent, but 37 per cent of voters say they disapprove of his performance, for an overall rating of minus 2. Close to one in three – or 28 per cent – remain uncommitted.
The poll has the Greens on 11 per cent, the troubled Palmer United Party – not registered for the election but likely to back independents – on 2 per cent and "others" at 7 per cent.
Ipsos polling director Jess Elgood said the fixed and mobile telephone poll of 1002 NSW voters, taken between Thursday and Saturday last week, showed the Coalition had "weathered the ICAC hearings".
"Seven months in, there is still a sense of a honeymoon period for Mr Baird," she said.
Ms Elgood said Mr Robertson's static approval figures compared with the February Nielsen poll showed "he hasn't cut through".
Voters appeared to like the "apparent transparency" of knowing where the proceeds from a partial electricity sale would be spent, she said.
"The downside is they think prices will go up, so clearly they're not supporting it for personal gain," Ms Elgood said.
"They're probably seeing it as broader community gain in terms of funds used for infrastructure."
