EXPERTS are baffled by a fourfold increase in the number of people suffering flu - even before the usual peak season in August and September.
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Already nearly 8000 cases have been reported compared with about 2000 at the same time last year. The increase has disproportionately affected Queensland, NSW and South Australia.
Alan Hampson, an adviser to the World Health Organisation and the federal government on influenza, said the rates in summer and autumn were higher than any in the past decade.
In January and February more than 1700 people were recorded with flu, compared with fewer than 300 the year before. ''We might expect a severe flu season," he said.
Part of the reason could be the bad weather and flooding in parts of the country, including Queensland, where the outbreak is worst. It was not understood why flu seemed to be worse during high rainfall and cold weather, said Dr Hampson, who is the chairman of the Influenza Specialist Group, an expert team that aims to reduce the impact of flu and receives funding from drug companies that produce vaccines.
It could be the weather or other factors such as people spending more time indoors.
Dr Hampson said people at high risk from flu, such as the elderly or those with chronic health conditions, still had a limited time to be vaccinated.
If people took antivirals within the first day or two of illness they might reduce its length and severity, he said.
The head of the epidemiology unit at the Victorian Infectious Diseases Reference Laboratory, Heath Kelly, said swine flu was still the dominant strain, and pregnant women and the very overweight were at extra risk.
But large numbers of people were not needing intensive care as had occurred during the swine flu pandemic in 2009. "We suspect widespread disease in the first wave, plus the vaccine, plus a second wave of disease, has left a lot of vulnerable people protected," Dr Kelly said.
Robert Booy, a professor of paediatrics and child health at the Children's Hospital at Westmead, and the University of Sydney, said a relatively mild flu season last year could have contributed to the higher rates.
"Having a quiet winter often leads to a bad winter because people lose immunity," Professor Booy said.
Parents should not be concerned about children having the vaccine as it was different from the one that caused some to experience fevers and fits last year, Professor Booy said.
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